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First flood outlook issued, Mississippi at risk

The first of several flood outlooks have been issued by the National Weather Service regarding the spring flood season. Due to snowpack to the north, high soil moisture content and current streamflow conditions, the risk for minor flooding is above normal this year on all area rivers. The risk of major flooding on the Mississippi River is much above normal and long duration flooding is a potential, provided the current moisture conditions continue. These conditions have persisted since fall of 2019. The risk of flooding on individual basins will, of course, depend on spring precipitation as well as the rate of snowmelt. The next flood outlook will be issued on February 27th and probability could increase, decrease or stay the same, based on what conditions are like at that time.

Sundog weather coming later this week

Sundogs are some of the neater things we experience. We also receive plenty of questions about them! On cold, clear mornings after a fluffy snowfall, conditions become favorable to see these. Wind helps, too. Sundogs most commonly occur at sunrise and sunset and are characterized by two bursts of bright light on either side of the sun. This makes for a great photo opportunity and is due to sunlight refracting and reflecting off suspended ice crystals. While officially known as a sun halo, they are given the name sundog due to the loyalty that these bright spots have to the sun, like a dog never leaving the side of their master.

Valentine’s Day weather history

Valentine’s Day is just around the corner, so we looked up how the past five years panned out weather-wise. On average, by the middle of February Cedar Rapids is sitting in the upper 30s for comparison. Well above average temperatures were the weather story the past three years on Valentine’s Day. Last year, the high was 52°. In 2018, it was 51° and 53° degrees in 2017. Each of those well below the record which was 67° in 1954. Temperatures were well below average in 2015 and 2016, with highs in the 20s. As far as precipitation is concerned, only 0.4” of snow fell in 2016, with all other years being dry. The most snow to fall in Cedar Rapids on Valentine’s Day was 6.5” in 2007. This year, at this point, temperatures look to be in the low 20s with mostly sunny skies.

This weekend’s system favors northern Iowa, southern Minnesota

Our next low pressure system is coming from the Pacific Northwest. The current track places the swath of heaviest snow over Minnesota and Wisconsin. However, northern Iowa is also favored for some of the heavier amounts, too. At this time, amounts look very low over the southern half of our area, including Cedar Rapids and Iowa City. Any snow accumulation in those places should stay under an inch. Farther north, 1-3” of snow looks likely along Highway 20 including Waterloo and Dubuque. Over far northern, 3-6” of snow should fall by the time Sunday is over. The Interstate 90 corridor in Minnesota looks to get even higher amounts. This will be a wet snow thanks to relatively “warm” temperatures. So, plan on it being heavier to move, especially where the higher amounts fall.

Beyond the Weather: February full moon

February 9th marks the date of this month’s full moon. Officially, the full moon occurs at 1:33 a.m that day. This moon is also known as the snow moon. It is also the fourth-closest of the 13 full moons this year. Is this a supermoon? It all depends on which definition of a supermoon you follow. If one defines it based on the year’s closest perigee (nearest point to the Earth) and farthest apogee (farthest point from the Earth) then no, it is not. However, if one defines it based on the perigee and apogee for a given monthly orbit, then it is. Either way, let’s hope for a clear sky to view our nearest lunar neighbor. Happy stargazing!